Steel price trend in July

Steel price trend in July

Quotes: demand is coming, the steel price is weak

Supply: increase production limit, supply pressure slows down

Demand: high temperature weather in summer, steel needs to break through

Cost: raw materials fall back, support weakens

Macro: Environmental protection supervision, supply and demand structure transformation

Comprehensive view: Due to the decline in traditional off-season demand, the continuous high output of crude steel, and the inflection point of social inventory, the domestic steel spot market price fluctuated weakly in June; near the end of the month, under the stimulus of Tangshan, Hebei Province, The market price will rise to a low level. After entering July, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will continue to bloom, but many places will usher in hot and humid weather. It is difficult to recover the downstream demand quickly. It is expected that there will be some pressure on the demand side. With the new round At the start of the central eco-environmental inspector, some steel mills will increase their production limit. At the same time, due to the high price of raw materials such as iron ore, some steel mills choose peak-to-peak maintenance, and supply pressure may reduce the market. Or the pattern of “restricted supply and difficult demand”, if there is no major positive or bad news, the space above and below the domestic steel market is suppressed. Based on this, we judge the volatility of the domestic steel market in July. It is expected that the domestic steel price index will fluctuate between 4150-4350 yuan/ton in July.